Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 119.014084 137.078451 157.647720 182.947336 213.424095 249.201558 294.745402
2025-12-07 95.506939 118.124266 146.282306 184.428360 235.558745 302.901644 400.322358
2025-12-14 82.135260 106.963160 139.970755 188.088843 258.224427 359.673584 523.299369
2025-12-21 71.717961 97.161175 132.753321 187.751475 273.587595 407.923720 646.161504
2025-12-28 67.062426 94.229343 134.081036 199.174542 307.769100 491.681844 851.589116
2026-01-04 62.672991 90.853586 133.923368 207.795092 338.651857 577.028918 1089.566829
2026-01-11 58.635142 87.353877 132.864485 214.421152 367.044798 664.751436 1366.014216
2026-01-18 54.578347 83.252031 130.146465 217.502886 389.257293 746.036034 1662.513543
2026-01-25 50.605923 78.790395 126.172111 217.516592 405.272743 818.491883 1970.639742
2026-02-01 46.420423 73.510182 120.108227 212.575118 409.990727 866.868735 2237.631567
2026-02-08 42.709868 68.670683 114.259392 207.133391 412.475203 910.612398 2514.210619
2026-02-15 39.513525 64.427776 109.023574 202.133122 414.910996 954.951651 2818.118295
2026-02-22 38.783443 64.589129 112.141683 215.238347 463.279633 1139.683024 3754.029196
2026-03-01 36.810638 62.297291 110.316699 217.507429 486.044281 1261.831021 4557.979585
2026-03-08 35.271908 60.663235 109.586013 222.086803 515.950497 1418.119015 5668.060171
2026-03-15 33.383603 58.188624 106.882078 221.691768 532.466276 1538.346926 6737.975563
2026-03-22 32.979397 58.544521 110.033726 235.726516 593.480387 1843.017499 9266.814550
2026-03-29 32.263249 58.208842 111.673005 246.341892 647.705851 2153.580908 12416.418999
2026-04-05 31.381301 57.453613 112.307771 254.515458 696.953301 2474.416483 16372.649528
2026-04-12 30.234030 56.050863 111.346024 258.321132 733.184565 2761.763010 20810.440845
2026-04-19 28.912598 54.176193 109.119329 258.338071 756.604296 3004.785817 25556.222486
2026-04-26 27.296553 51.556924 104.924957 252.237115 756.628462 3130.758144 29350.607611
2026-05-03 25.767670 49.022096 100.712170 245.526572 752.967722 3237.803056 33350.742025